Archive for the 'Investing' Category

Tracking the Chinese Stock Markets

Aug. 4th 2015

China and its stock markets often make the financial news headlines. From blistering performance at the start of 2015, to vertiginous corrections in the latter months, the Chinese markets have given more than one investor cause to down a few antacid pills. Actively tracking the Chinese stock markets, from the mainland China Indexes to their ETF counterparts, can help you get a better grip on their workings and lead to a positive investment experience.

Tracking the Chinese Stock Markets

Blistering Performance

From the start of 2015 till mid June 2015, the mainland China CSI 300 Index, composed of the 300 largest stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, increased 50%. Going back 12 months to June 2014 through mid June 2015, the performance of the CSI 300 was even better, topping out at an over 125% increase. A broader mainland index, the SSE Composite Index, composed of all stocks that trade on the Shanghai exchange, increased over 150% in the same 12 months through mid June 2015.

The main Hong Kong index, the Hang Seng Index, was more subdued. This index of the 48 largest companies on the Hong Kong exchange, only increased 20% over the first 5 months of 2015. The Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) increased a miserly 5% over those same first 5 months of 2015.

The powerful advance of the mainland indexes has been fuelled mainly by individual investors. By some counts, over 80% of the transactions in Chinese stocks are produced by these retail investors. And over the last 2 years, the percentage of young investors has skyrocketed. In the last 12 months, more than half of the new investment accounts that were opened in China were opened by someone under 30 years old. It’s no wonder then that the market volatility has also subsequently increased.

Chinese regulators have recently stepped in to try to manage the volatility. Limiting margin investing (i.e. borrowing cash to invest in the markets) has been one of their main tools. Until recently however, young investors were able to get around some of these limitations by using social media and peer-to-peer lending to borrow more investment funds instead.

Vertiginuous Corrections

July 2015 has seen a number of gut-wrenching drops in the mainland indexes. On July 27, 2015 alone, the CSI 300 Index dropped over 8%, its largest one-day drop in years. Other sell-offs happened throughout the month of July, with follow up bounces and subsequent further drops.

On June 24th, 2015, the CSI 300 entered bear market territory (a drop of 20% or more) from the peak earlier that month.

Whether the Chinese mainland markets can recover their high-flying ways, or crash and burn al-la 1929 New York style, or even whether the Chinese regulators manage to bring serenity to the markets, is anyone’s guess.

Tracking the Chinese Stock Market Indexes

Whether you’re a Chinese market bull or bear, to make intelligent, informed decisions on what to invest in, you’ll first need to start tracking the ups and downs of the Chinese stock markets.

  • CSI 300 Index – As a starting point, you’ll want to track the mainland China CSI 300 Index. This index is composed of the 300 largest “A”-stocks that trade on the Shanghai and Shenzen exchanges. It is the most commonly referred to Chinese index. At Yahoo Finance, the ticker symbol is 000300.SS. At Google Finance, the ticker symbol is SHA:000300.
  • SSE Composite Index – It’s also useful to track the broader mainland China index, the SSE Composite Index. This index is composed of all stocks (both “A”-stocks and “B”-stocks) that trade on the Shanghai exchange (about 870 stocks, currently). You can see it at Yahoo Finance as 000001.SS or at Google Finance as SHA:000001.
  • SZSE Component Index – Additionally, there’s the SZSE Component Index, composed of 40 stocks that trade on the Shenzhen stock exchange. At Yahoo Finance its ticker symbol is 399001.SZ and at Google Finance its ticker symbol is SHE:399001.
  • Hang Seng Index – Another useful index is the Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong’s main index of the 48 largest stocks that trade on their exchange (Yahoo: ^HSI; Google: INDEXHANGSENG:HSI).
  • TAIEX – The Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (abbreviated TAIEX) covers all listed stocks on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) (Yahoo: TAIEX; Google: TPI:TAIEX).

Chinese Market ETFs

Once you’ve done a bit of homework and have a better feel for how and where this sort of investment could fit into your portfolio, you’ll need to take a look at some of the actual investment instruments that you can put your money into.

As a non-Chinese person, you won’t be able to invest directly in individual stocks. However, there are a number of ETFs that can expose you to various elements of the Chinese market.

  • iShares China Large-Cap ETF (Yahoo: FXI; Google:NYSEARCA:FXI) – As the most heavily traded Chinese share ETF (20 million shares traded daily), it invests in the 25 largest Chinese stocks that trade on the Hong Kong exchange as it tries to replicate the FTSE China 25 Index.
  • Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (Yahoo: ASHR; Google:NYSEARCA:ASHR) – This highly liquid ETF (over 3 million shares traded daily) aims to replicate the CSI 300 Index. This index tracks the 300 largest, most liquid stocks that trade on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. Comparing its chart to that of the CSI 300 Index shows that they trade very closely to one another.
  • Market Vectors ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (Yahoo: CNXT; Google:NYSEARCA:CNXT) – Less widely traded (200K shares traded daily) this ETF looks to replicate SME-ChiNext 100 Index. This index is composed of 100 small and medium sized stocks that trade on the SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) Board and the ChiNext (fast-growing and technology heavy stocks) Board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • iShares MSCI China ETF (Yahoo: MCHI; Google:NYSEARCA:MCHI) – Another liquid ETF (over 1 million shares traded daily) with over $2 billion in assets, it aims to replicate the MSCI China Index, which tracks the performance of large cap Chinese equities.
  • SPDR S&P China ETF (Yahoo: GXC; Google:NYSEARCA:GXC) – Less widely traded (200K shares traded daily), but with a low expense ratio and over $1 billion in assets, this ETF tracks the S&P China BMI Index. The S&P China BMI Index encompasses the stocks of all publicly traded companies, domiciled in China, but whose shares are available to trade by foreign investors.

Short Term Investing with Chinese Market ETFs

If you’re more of a short term trader (swing-trader or day trader), there are a number of ways to play the Chinese market volatility using leveraged and inverse ETFs.

  • ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50 (Yahoo: XPP; Google:NYSEARCA:XPP) – A leveraged ETF that aims to provide returns that are twice (2x) the daily performance of the FTSE China 50 Index. This index tracks the performance of the largest companies in the Chinese equity market that are available to international investors.
  • ProShares Short FTSE China 50 (Yahoo: YXI; Google:NYSEARCA:YXI) – An inverse ETF that aims to provide returns that are the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of the FTSE China 50 Index.
  • ProShares Ultrashort FTSE China 50 (Yahoo: FXP; Google:NYSEARCA:FXP) – A leveraged inverse ETF that aims to provide returns that are the twice the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the FTSE China 50 Index.
  • Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X ETF (Yahoo: YINN; Google:NYSEARCA:YINN) – Aims to provide returns that are three times (3x) the daily performance of the FTSE China 50 Index.
  • Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X ETF (Yahoo: YANG; Google:NYSEARCA:YANG) – A leveraged, inverse ETF that aims to provide returns that are three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the FTSE China 50 Index.
  • Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (Yahoo: CHAU; Google:NYSEARCA:CHAU) – A leveraged ETF that aims to provide returns that are twice (2x) the daily performance of the CSI 300 Index.
  • Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Shares Bear 1X Shares (Yahoo: CHAD; Google:NYSEARCA:CHAD) – An inverse ETF that aims to provide returns that are the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of the CSI 300 Index.

Other Notable Chinese Stock ETFs

The ETFs mentioned above are certainly not the only ways to invest in the Chinese market. There are a number of smaller ETFs that provide a more targeted investment, or track various other Chinese Indexes.

  • Guggenheim/Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap ETF (Yahoo: HAO; Google: NYSEARCA:HAO ) – An ETF that aims to provide returns equivalent to the performance of the equity index called the AlphaShares China Small Cap Index. This index tracks the performance of publicly-traded mainland China-based small capitalization companies who have a maximum $1.5 billion market capitalization.
  • PowerShares Golden Dragon China ETF (Yahoo: PGJ; Google: NYSEARCA:PGJ ) – An ETF that aims to provide returns equivalent to the performance of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index/Halter USX China Index. This index is comprised of the United States-listed securities of companies that derive a majority of their revenue from the People‚Äôs Republic of China.
  • iShares MSCI China Small-Cap (Yahoo: ECNS; Google: NYSEARCA:ECNS ) – An ETF that aims to track the performance of the MSCI China Small Cap Index. This index is designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the bottom 14% by market capitalization of the Chinese equity securities markets.

The list of Indexes and ETFs above is certainly not an exhaustive list of the ways of investing in the Chinese market. The ETFdb.com website has an even longer list of ETFs that can help you find the right vehicle for your investment in the Chinese market.

Tracking Chinese Indexes and ETFs

To get yourself started tracking and doing follow up research on these indexes and ETFs, create a new Watchlist for them in StockMarketEye. Then download and import this CSV file that contains all of the ticker symbols for the Chinese Indexes and ETFs mentioned in this post. Or watch this video on how to import a CSV watchlist into StockMarketEye.

If you have other suggestions for indexes or ETFs that other investors would find useful, don’t hesitate to mention them in the comments.

Posted by admin | in Investing | No Comments »

Compare Stock Charts to Make Better Stock Picks

Oct. 29th 2014

There are many variables involved when choosing the best investment. From fundamental data to technical analysis to on-line recommendations, each piece of information plays a part in your investment thesis.

Why Compare Stock Charts?

Once you have a set of stocks, ETFs, mutual funds or other securities that match your general investment thesis, using a stock comparison chart can give you valuable perspective. Charting all of your potential investments against each other improves your understanding of the individual investments and how they fit into the larger picture.

Comparison charts give you a strong, visual data point that you can use when ranking and choosing the investment that best fits your investment thesis.

A Technology Stocks Example

Let’s walk through just one way you might compare stock charts when choosing an investment.

Let’s say you’re interested in investing in the tech sector. There are lots of companies in this area to choose from. While doing your research (browsing investment websites, talking with colleagues, reading analyst recommendations, etc.), you’ve built up a special “Technology” Watchlist in StockMarketEye. This stock watchlist holds all of the tech stocks that have crossed your radar during your research and that seemed “investable”.

You may have come across other tech stocks, but for one reason or another, they didn’t make it into this curated list. (Although keeping a separate watchlist for the technology stocks that didn’t make your curated list is also possible as StockMarketEye does not restrict how many watchlists you can have, nor the number of stocks you can have in each watchlists.)

In StockMarketEye, this watchlist may look something like this:

A Technology Stocks Watchlist

You have also identified who the “big name” players in the industry are and placed them at the top of your watchlist. For our discussion, those “big name” technology players are:

  • Apple Inc. (AAPL)
  • Google Inc. (GOOGL)
  • Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
  • Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Adding Comparison Symbols to the Chart

To compare the stock charts of these potential investments, you add them as comparison symbols to the chart. There are multiple ways of adding comparison symbols.

The first way allows you to add each symbol individually using the chart menu, Chart Options -> Compare to… In the “Add Comparison Symbol” enter the ticker symbol to use for comparison in the field (you can type the symbol you want to add directly into the field, or use the drop-down selector to choose one of the indexes listed), then click OK to add it to the chart.

Adding a single comparison symbol

Alternatively, if you have more than one symbol you want to compare against, you can select all of them in the watchlist, then use the menu: Watchlist -> Add to Chart as Comparison Symbol. Note that this menu is also available by right-clicking (Ctrl-Click on Mac) on the watchlist.

Adding multiple comparison symbols at one time

Afterwards, your chart will look something like the following:

Stock chart comparing 5 stocks

The chart of each stock starts at 0 on the left side of the chart. The y-axis shows the relative performance (in percent) of each stock since the first day of the chart. As you can see, over the last 6 months, AAPL has out-performed the others with YHOO a close second.

Comparing Other Stocks

But how do some of the other stocks compare to these big 5?

Clicking on one of the other stocks, such as FB, shows it as the main symbol in the chart. As you can see, over the last 6 months, Facebook’s stock (the dark blue line) has outperformed the stocks of the other “big 5”.

Comparison stock chart of Facebook (FB) vs other major technology stocks

However, selecting P shows that Pandora (the dark blue line) has under performed even AMZN, being down close to 20% over the last 6 months.

Comparison stock chart of Pandora Media, Inc. (P) vs other major technology stocks

Selecting IBM (the dark blue line) shows a similar chart for “big blue”, down more than 15% over the last 6 months.

Comparison stock chart of International Business Machines (IBM) vs other major technology stocks

What do comparison stock charts tell me?

IBM is down more than 15% over the last 6 months, but does that mean it is a buying opportunity or should it be avoided? Facebook is up almost 30% in the last 6 months, but does that mean it is too expensive or does it still have room to run?

Unfortunately, chart comparison alone can’t answer those questions. To make sense of the charts, you need to understand the background (earnings, economic factors, etc.) behind the recent performance.

Comparing the charts can help you to quickly identify the stocks that meet some aspect of your investment thesis. But you’ll most likely want to supplement that information with a deeper understanding of the specifics of the particular stocks you’re interested in.

Conclusion

Picking the right stocks to invest in is part art and part science. The science part focuses on the research into the fundamentals and technicals of the stocks, ETFs, mutual funds or other securities involved. The art part is your investing thesis and culminates in the final selection using information from your research. An integral part of that selection process is to compare stock charts, helping you to rank and differentiate based on your investment thesis.

If you’d like to add this technology watchlist to your StockMarketEye, you can download it as a CSV file here. Then watch this video for how you can import the watchlist into StockMarketEye. If you’re not already a StockMarketEye user, you can try it for free for 30-days, no strings attached.

(Full disclosure: I own shares of the following stocks mentioned in this post: AAPL, GOOGL, YHOO, MSFT, AMZN, P and FB.)

Posted by admin | in Investing | No Comments »

Managing Your Investments No Matter Where You Are

Sep. 19th 2014

Managing your investments is no easy task, but StockMarketEye can give you high and low level views of all your investments together, helping you make informed investment decisions faster.

A couple of question we often get from users are:

  • How can I get my investments into StockMarketEye?
  • How can I copy my investment data to another computer so I don’t have to enter it twice?

To better answer those questions, let’s look at the following graphic.

Brokerage-OnLineSync

Brokerage Import, File Import or Manual Entry

Before you can get started syncing your investment data to another computer or device, you’ll need to get that investment data into StockMarketEye. For many users, the easiest way to initially get your investments into StockMarketEye is via the Brokerage Import feature. Importing from one of the supported brokerages makes it quick to get started and easy to maintain as your investments evolve. Unfortunately, this “direct connect” standard for downloading data from brokerages that StockMarketEye, Quicken and other financial programs use, is only supported by some U.S. brokerages.

If your brokerage does not support the “direct connect” standard or your accounts are with non-U.S. brokerages, you can instead import your investments into StockMarketEye via certain types of investment files. Most brokerages give you the option of downloading your data for use in another program. Often they refer to this as something like “Download for Quicken” or “Download for Microsoft Money”. Downloading your data in this way will give you a QIF or OFX/QFX file which you can import into StockMarketEye.

It is also possible to manually enter your holdings and transactions. StockMarketEye has easy to use manual transaction entry windows that support virtually all transaction types (buy/sell, dividends, capital gains, return of capital, splits, company actions, transfers, cash transactions, etc).

Syncing Your Data To Other Computers/Devices

Once you’ve gotten your investments into StockMarketEye, you can easily sync them to other computers and devices. For example, you could sync to your wife or husband’s computer so they can follow along too. Or sync it to your computer at the office so you can track your investments while at work. You can even sync it to your iOS (iPhone/iPad) device so you can take it with you on the go.

Syncing to the other devices is supported by the StockMarketEye On-Line Sync service. This is a “cloud” based service that we provide to make it easy to follow your investments anywhere you want to.

The basic principal of the on-line sync service is that the service stores a copy of your data, which can then be downloaded by any version of StockMarketEye that you use. Your data in the on-line sync service is only accessible to you. The data is sent and stored securely using strong, industry standard encryption.

Use of the on-line sync service is completely optional. StockMarketEye’s other features do not depend on the on-line sync in any way. If you only use StockMarketEye on one computer, there’s no need to setup or use the on-line sync. But if you run StockMarketEye on more than one computer or device, it is an easy way to keep your data updated on all of them.

NOTE: Our on-line sync service is not the only way of transferring your data to another computer. It is also possible to use the backup/restore method. This involves making a backup of your StockMarketEye data on one computer, copying the backup file to the other computer and restoring it with StockMarketEye on that computer. Typically, this method is best for one-off transfers, such as if you upgrade your computer and want to move your data to the new computer.

My Typical StockMarketEye Workflow

Here’s how I typically manage my investments in StockMarketEye, using both the brokerage import and the on-line sync.

  1. I have a main computer where make updates to my investments, create regular backup files, etc. I call this my “master” computer.
  2. Periodically, I will “update from brokerage” (menu: Portfolio -> Update from Brokerage…) for each of my portfolios that are mirroring an account at a brokerage. This pulls in the latest transactions for that account and applies them to the StockMarketEye portfolio.
  3. I like to verify that the transactions were reported correctly by the brokerage. Typically there is no need to correct anything (if you have already updated the “placeholder” transactions that were created during the initial import), but in some cases, especially concerning splits, it may be necessary to make changes. See our blog post on the recent Apple split for an example.
  4. Once everything looks good, I use the on-line sync (either the standard “Start synchronization now”, or the “Push to Account” in the “Other Synchronization Actions”). This sends my data to the on-line sync service and stores it there.
  5. Later, when I’m at my other computer or on my iPhone, I’ll typically use the “Pull from Account” synchronization to replace the data in StockMarketEye with the data in my on-line sync account. I could also use the standard “Start synchronization now”, but since I maintain a “master” copy on one computer, the “Pull” sync on the other computers makes more sense, preventing any inadvertent changes I may have made on the other computers from being mixed up with the “master” data.

You don’t need to keep a “master” copy of your data on one computer like I do. The standard sync of StockMarketEye’s on-line sync service is built to handle updates from any computer or device, merging them together so you always get the most recent version.

StockMarketEye is a powerful, but easy to use tool for managing and monitoring all your investments in one place. Using the brokerage import it’s quick to get started, while the on-line sync lets you easily keep your data on multiple computers so you’re never far away from what’s happing with your investments.

You can find more information on the brokerage import and on-line synchronization in our User’s Guide.

Posted by admin | in Investing | No Comments »

Reading Colors in Stock Charts – Green and Red Explained

Sep. 11th 2014




Stock charts are a useful way of viewing the historical price movement of a security. The visual ups and downs of the line in the chart convey meaning in a way that a table full of numbers can not. One quick glance at a chart can give you meaningful perspective on the stock’s past performance and serve as a useful data point in your analysis.

A typical line stock chart in StockMarketEye looks like this:

Standard Line Stock Chart

The upper portion of the chart is called the Price chart. In the example above, the blue line shows the closing values of the stock. Moving the mouse over the chart will display the chart cursor. The details of the day under the cursor are shown in the top line of the chart area.

The lower portion of the chart is the trading Volume chart. The taller the bar, the more volume there was on that day.

The colors in the Volume chart also have meaning. A green volume bar means that the stock closed higher on that day verses the previous day’s close. A red volume bar means that the stock closed lower on that day compared to the previous day’s close. A black volume bar means either that the stock closed at the same price that day as it did the day before, or that the chart does not have the previous day’s closing price to compare with (such as in the first volume bar in the chart).

Green-Red Volume Bars

Green and Red in the Price Chart

In the Price chart, both the Candlestick and Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) chart styles convey extra meaning when compared to a simple line chart. Instead of a single point (i.e. the closing price), the day’s activity is shown as a symbol, in which the day’s 4 data points (i.e. the open, high, low and closing prices) are drawn.

The green and red versions of the Candlestick and OHLC chart styles convey extra meaning through the colors. This same meaning is also visible in the monochrome version of these chart styles, but some investors find the green and red versions help them to interpret the meaning faster.

The next chart shows the “Candlestick Green/Red” stock chart type in action. A green candlestick means that the opening price on that day was lower than the closing price that day (i.e. the price moved up during the day); a red candlestick means that the opening price was higher than the closing price that day (i.e. the price moved down during the day).

Green/Red Candlesticks

Compare that with the monochrome version of the same chart. A green candlestick is equivalent to an open candle of the monochrome “Candlestick” chart type; a red candlestick is equivalent to a filled candle.

Monochrome Candlesticks

When the Colors differ between the Price Chart and the Volume Chart

Although both the Price chart and Volume chart can use green and red to convey meaning, the meaning of the colors is slightly different in each of these chart types. Sometimes the candlestick or OHLC’s color will be different from the volume bar’s color.

For example, if the stock finished higher than the previous day, the volume bar will be green. But on the same day, if the stock moved lower from the opening price, the candlestick would be colored red.

Colors differ for Candlestick and Volume bar

This situation is not that uncommon. For example, if there was a gap up at the open (because of positive company news, analyst recommendation, etc), but the stock moved lower from that point throughout the day, yet staying above the previous day’s closing price, the candlestick would be colored red, but the volume bar would be green.

Colors can be useful to help convey extra meaning in stock charts. Knowing how each color is used in the different parts of the stock chart will help you interpret their meaning faster and get more out of the chart.

StockMarketEye has a wide range of chart styles and technical indicators to choose from. Download your free copy of StockMarketEye today and start keeping your eye on the markets!




Posted by admin | in Investing | 6 Comments »

Tracking Buffett and the Berkshire Portfolio

Sep. 8th 2014

If there’s a household name in the investment world, it would be Warren Buffett. Buffett is the 84-year old chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a conglomerate holding company. He is also the world’s 3rd richest person (due to his stake in Berkshire Hathaway; behind only Bill Gates and Carlos Slim) and is widely considered the most successful investor of modern times.

When Buffett speaks, the talking-heads on MSNBC stop talking and listen. When Berkshire Hathaway acquires or takes a stake in a company, the transaction itself and the reasons behind it are scrutinized by the investment houses of Wall St. down to the individual investors on Main St.

Berkshire, like all institutional investment managers with over $100 million in securities, is required to file an SEC Form 13F every quarter. The 13F filing details Berkshire’s holdings at the end of that quarter including the number of shares owned and their market value. Although specific trade dates, sizes and prices are not included in the 13F filing, by comparing with previous quarter’s filings, you can get a good picture of Berkshire’s investment activity over the quarter.

For example, notable in the trades gleaned from Berkshire’s 13F filing from Q2 2014 was the sale of 66% of their stake in Phillips 66 (PSX) and the purchase of a $500 million stake in Verizon Communications (VZ).

Although the information in the 13F filings can be very useful for an individual investor, the 13F filing itself is rather technical. Comparing the reported holdings to the previous quarter’s filing is also not entirely straightforward and takes some serious pen/paper or Excel work to figure out what has changed.

Tracking Buffett and Berkshire’s Portfolio with StockMarketEye

Because I’m a Buffett fan as well as a StockMarketEye user, I wanted to track the Berkshire portfolio in StockMarketEye. To do this, I took the Berkshire 13F filings dating back to Q2 2013 and created a StockMarketEye portfolio from them, including creating the buy and sell transactions each quarter.

Here’s part of what this portfolio looks like in StockMarketEye:

Berkshire Hathaway

You can see that currently (September 8, 2014), Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is worth around $108 Billion.

If you’d like to track the Berkshire portfolio in your StockMarketEye, I’ve setup a page with everything you need. It has a transactions CSV file that you can download and import to build the portfolio.

There is also a video of how you can import the file into StockMarketEye:

StockMarketEye – Importing a Portfolio

If you’re a fan of Buffett, this is an easy way to track his holdings and see their performance. And if you’re not yet a fan, well, Buffett’s portfolio has about 108 billion reasons why maybe you should be.

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